BANGLADESH A NEW DESTABILISING NEIGHBOURHOOD FRONTIER

 Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee  while interacting in Pakistan   remarked that friends can be changed but not neighbours. We have to live with neighbours. We either live as friends or we keep fighting. This analogy equally applies to Indo-Bangladesh relations which presently   at their nadir. Immediate fall out of dip in relations is   heightened vulnerability of Indo-Bangladesh border from illegal immigrants,,radical/fundamentalist  elements, ISI sponsored elements, insurgents and persecuted minorities   jeopardising border security and internal security.   

Internally  destabilised  Bangladesh poses big   challenge  to  India's  security especially in North East India. There are   economic and political ramifications of destabilised Bangladesh. It  alters regional geostrategic and geopolitical environment with consolidated troika of Pakistan,China and Bangladesh  presenting a formidable security challenge to India all along neighbourhood frontiers. Troika aims at isolating India by weaning away neighbours and making land and maritime frontiers more difficult and challenging imposing heavy economic costs. US interest in Saint Martin Island to dominate Bay of Bengal as alleged by Sheikh Hasina further multiplies security challenges . 

Need is to carry out an objective analysis of Bangladesh internal situation,  affect on majority and minorities communities , resultant border security challenges along Indo-Bangladesh border. Bangladesh post overthrow of Sheikh Hasina regime on 05 August 2024 is   governed by interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus designated as Chief Advisor. The interim administrations mandate is to stabilise internal situation, create peaceful environment for conduct of elections and return to democratic governance. It is easier said than done. The anarchic internal situation,  fundamentalism and safety of minorities pose big challenge to interim administration. Internally disturbed environment with patronage of fundamentalist by  regime  and consolidated troika of Pakistan China and Bangladesh present a formidable challenge to border security all along Indo-Bangladesh border.

There are different pressure and political  groups   pursuing their agenda for supremacy and dominance over decision making process of Yunus administration. They are in order of priority and precedence are as follows:-

-Anti Discriminatory  Students movement is the  main pressure group which had maximum influence on Yunus administration. In fact Yunus is their choice as Chief advisor. It  the same group which forced Chief Justice of Supreme court and brother judges to resign through their  agitational approach which extends to threatening and physical harm. It has sacrificed more than 300 members and was the main group which forced Sheikh Hasina to resign,flee  country and installation of interim administration. It carries  weight with government and had  representatives in Yunus administration as advisors.

-Military forms core backer of present administration and had helped stabilise situation. Without military being on board,interim administration could not have been formed. It plays major role in influencing the decisions of government and military had magisterial powers given to them which was up to 20 November 2024 and this mandate has been extended by two more months. It signals military desire to play major role in internal administrative set up and also an indicator that situation in Bangladesh is bad and beyond the control of police and military need  play major role in internal stabilisation.

-Bangladesh Jamaat-E-Islami  was banned by Sheikh Hasina on 01 August 2024 ,however the ban was lifted on 28 August 2024 by new administration of Chief Advisor Yunus. Its influence in Bangladesh political space and among masses is continuously growing. In addition to holding sway over majority community through its hard-line political approach, is also claiming to be main    protector of minorities. It has formed minority committees consisting of minorities to instil a sense of trust in them and win over the minorities.With the installation of new administration ,it has gained legitimacy and influence  to the extent that even foreign envoys and UN representatives interact with it.However its fundamentalist character pose a security challenge to India.  and it can not be relied upon.

-Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP)-Bangladesh Nationalist party led by Begum Khaleda Zia is the fourth strong player in internal power play in Bangladesh. BNP with its secretary General Mirza Fakhural Islam Alamgir  is pitching for early elections and restoration of democracy. BNP favours participation of all political parties in elections including Awami league.Some of BNP leaders have given call of boycott India ,however its secretary General had expressed desire for better relations with India on all fronts including security but tagged it with Sheikh Hasina's extradition.It need to be closely watched considering its past sceptic record against  India and pro-China leaning. 

China exercise great influence on Bangladesh is now joined by Pakistan too which is worrisome. Bangladesh military officers are getting trained in China and in addition major weapon inventory of Bangladesh military is Chinese. As per reports even Bangladesh Jamaat-E- Islami cadres have also gone for interaction cum training to China. China exercises more influence on Bangladesh than US.

Another worrisome aspect is presence of Indian and Bangladesh based insurgent groups in Bangladesh especially in Chittagong Hill tracts (CHT).  Indian insurgent groups comprising of NLFT(BM) and NLFT(PDM) have almost surrendered  in response to surrender package, but still their are disgruntled remnants. In addition there are North East affiliated insurgent  groups  may take advantage of changed situation in Bangladesh. Bangladesh based Bangladeshi  groups like United peoples democratic front(UPDF)  are not happy with administration for non implementation of CHT accord.  UPDF even rejoiced Hasina's ouster. These groups need to be kept under watch and observation as they may consolidate and coordinate with Indian insurgent groups and use Bangladesh as base for their anti India campaign especially in North East with a lenient establishment in saddle. 

Anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh are running high and fundamentalisation of majority  is taking place at fast pace. The attacks against minorities and minority places of worship immediately after Hasina's ouster gave an ample indication of radicalisation of majority. Though attacks to some extent have subsided but are still taking place creating a wave of fear among minorities, Unless they are protected and safety ensured .they may have to concentrate in Dhaka for group security or  seek head to safety of India's North East. 

What are Indian options in current chaotic scenario in Bangladesh and are objectives of border management as envisaged in annual report of Ministry of Home Affairs for 2022-2023  fulfilled?

The  objective of border management as per chapter -3  para 3.3 is securing the countries borders against hostile interest and putting in place systems that are able to interdict such elements. It also says that proper management of borders is vital to national security. Proper management of borders need analysis of strength on borders ,surveillance equipment based upon vulnerability mapping of borders which need to be refreshed periodically  considering dynamic threat environment.

Indo-Bangladesh border is 4096.7 kms  long border passing through states of  West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram. It is hard fact that there are large number of illegal Bangladeshis in India spread all over India especially in West Bengal ,North East and Delhi and all of them have entered illegally through land border which makes Indo-Bangladesh border as abnormal border and   India first need to accept that Indo-Bangladesh border is not normal and routinely safe border but highly sensitive and abnormal border  border which need to be strengthened with boots on ground and surveillance equipment.It is border which is under active gaze of insurgents ,fundamentalists  ISI and Chinese gaze and need constant and continuous domination without any dilution in surveillance of any nature even of temporary nature. As per Border Security Force  data published in "The Tribune" dated 07 Dec 2024,BSF seized  12,300 kg drugs in 10 months,96 percent from Bangladesh border. The 96 percent of seized accounted for 11, 866 was seized from eastern front along Indo-Bangladesh border .Also 194 Bangladeshis were apprehended. The data and figures establish highly sensitive nature of Bangladesh border and now is time government pays special attention for strengthening this border.

India need to strengthen boots on ground ,reduce area of responsibility of battalions and companies and install surveillance equipment on the pattern of Western border. India need to remember the Boraibari incident of 2001 wherein Border Security Force lost 16 brave hearts and 2005 incident of Lankamura in Tripura wherein BSF officer was killed in cold blood by then Bangladesh Rifles now Border Guards Bangladesh.There must not be any  relaxation in domination and no withdrawal from border for secondary role and tasks.

Bangladesh is a destabilised neighbourhood. Border guarding in the region   need to be addressed with all seriousness lest it is exploited by anti India elements taking advantage of loopholes in border guarding. There is also need to strengthen preparations for conventional war to thwart any misadventure by Bangladesh aided by China and Pakistan. 

India along with border security need to push on diplomatic front need to impress upon Bangladesh to restore order and ensure security and safety of minorities.Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri  is scheduled to visit Dhaka on 09 December  for interaction and consultations. Multiple issues like  security of minorities,trade and connectivity issues are likely to be discussed. Better and improved relations between two  will ensure better internal and border  security and development in both countries especially India's North East through fast transportation connectivity through Bangladesh.It also benefits Bangladesh immensely.

Border Guarding need extra push along Indo-Bangladesh border in the interest of national security. Any dilution in primary role may prove detrimental for national security in short and long run considering destabilised nature of Bangladesh in turmoil and its leaning towards Pakistan and China.