INDIA CHINA BORDER DISPUTE -AN ANALYSIS

China has been surprising  us  through its unpredictable military and diplomatic  manoeuvres. In Jan 2020, there  were reports in Indian media of Chinese training exercises in Tibet in the areas bordering India. Military  exercises involved all kinds of weaponry. Indian military and intelligence experts   found nothing unusual in them. After exercises were over,some of the formations ,6the mechanised and 4th Highlands division part of exercises near Hotan,in Xinjiang  did not return to barracks and drove south through highway 219 that crosses Aksai Chin and then turned westwards towards line of actual control. Normal would have been to be alert as soon as movements were noticed .However it seems and which proved correct later ,not much attention was paid towards Chinese hyper border activity and  Chinese troops  stealthily occupied  areas claimed by both sides.China moved at number of places simultaneously, Galwan river Valley, Northern bank of  lake Pangong Tso .Hot springs/Gogra, Depsang Plains and Demchok and blocked Indians from patrolling these points what were rightly theirs. 

Chinese forces in early May, started showing up near Galwan valley and Gogra hot springs,however there was no reaction from Indian side. In Galwan Chinese crossed  LAC and tried to move  towards confluence of shyok and Galwan rivers but were blocked by Indian soldiers constructing a road to PP 14. Later Chinese started blocking India from patrolling  up to finger 8,in north bank,PP17 in Kurang valley.

It  can be presumed that India had intelligence on Chinese activities however lacked correct  appreciation of Chinese intentions which  ultimately  proved fatal and 20 Indian brave hearts were martyred  in violent clashes with Chinese troops along Line of actual control in Galwan area. There was need for correct  appreciation of Chinese intentions and be militarily prepared  and failure to do so  landed us in current LAC imbroglio which  created  instability and unpredictability along entire LAC. 

 

Chinese through    border incursions in one stroke violated various agreements signed between two countries for maintenance of peace and tranquility along LAC and violation of international protocols and rules of engagement.As per Global Times dated 24 April 23 ," China and India held the 18th round of Corps commander level meeting on Sunday,a  move Chinese experts said on Monday showed that border issue shifting from standoff to normalized management". As per Qian Feng,Director of research department at the national strategy institute at Tsinghua University " The China -India border issue is now gradually shifting from conflict and a standoff to a normalized management phase,and situation on border is expected to become steadier and calmer in future". he further says " But the border issue remains complex,so it still require both sides to further implement mechanisms at all levels and through different channels to meet halfway as much as possible,so as to find a fair and reasonable solution".   

 There have been nineteen  rounds  rounds of India China corps commander level military talks. Not much has been achieved in these talks  spread over a period of  almost three years except that India s right to patrol certain patrolling points have been restored though still as per news reports,Indian military is not able to patrol 26 patrolling points  out of 65. 

In addition there is no forward movement on de-escalation and disengagement from two major friction points Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh. Creation of buffer zones can not be levelled as forward movement. Buffer zones have provided legal sanctity to Chinese  claimed LAC wherein allegedly China has reclaimed its perceptional LAC, thus compromising territorial integrity. China has successfully  used the border instability and border dispute to strengthen its position through military and diplomatic manoeuvres by keeping India engaged but not ceding and diluting its position on LAC. Rather it refers to  LAC as border areas which will strengthen its position historically  in terms of legalising the current  positions  physically held  by both armies.  

The 19th  India China military talks were held in two phases,the first phase  at corps commander level to discuss de-escalation and disengagement and second phase at the level of major general level  to strengthen confidence building measures to reduce friction and trust deficit between both armies. As per times of India dated 18 August 2023 " CBMs to be strengthened  range from preserving the sanctity of buffer zones and strictly adhering to border protocols to exchanging prior information on patrols and not increasing force levels along the forbidding frontier in eastern Ladakh".  All this is aimed at preventing inadvertent vertical escalation between forward deployed troops at Depsang and Demchok as well as buffer zones earlier created  after troop withdrawal from Pangong Tso-Kailash range,Galwan Valley and Gogra Hot springs.As per "The Tribune"

dated 22 August 23,'Military officers of India and China today met for third time within four days to resolve border standoff,especially at sensitive Depsang plains"

The push to resolve the deadlock also comes just ahead of expected bilateral between  Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of  BRICS SUMMIT from August 22 to 24 ,2023, being held at Johannesburg. 

What are options for India vis-à-vis  China on border standoff.

Government  first need to accept that China  have violated sovereignty and territorial integrity of India. It   must fall back to April 2020 positions for ensuring stable and peaceful LAC. India need to see Chinese actions  from geostrategic and geopolitical angle aimed at undermining India's position as emerging regional power and     pushing  India towards a two front war. China with its hostile actions on LAC ,also aims to   send message to India's neighbours of Chinese hegemonic intentions and is a warning sign to them to fall in Line. Already China is in talks with Bhutan for settlement of border issue which may effect India s national security interests. Chinese naval and reconnaissance ships  are off and on  visiting Lankan ports despite Indian reservations. China is well ensconced in Myanmar and through it is  fiddling with North Eastern region of India.

Chinese aim in  continuing border talks without resolution of primary border issue is two fold. Delink border issue from bilateral relations. Improve bilateral relations and border issue can wait.Through this process of long delay in addressing border stand off, buy time and push an argument of historical legacy   and new border law  legacy to keep border issue unresolved  and keep Indian borders unstable and unpredictable thus imposing high economic and military cost upon India. Already sanctification  of buffer zones  as part of CBMs is like falling in Chinese trap of recognising sanctity of current positions and strengthening Chinese claims of LAC inadvertently and thus recognising Chinese claim line as future border.As per post from Brahma Chellaney " The ongoing Sino-Indian military talks seek to finalize CBMs that,along with  the so called "buffers" in four areas would further solidify the new line  of actual control in Ladakh resulting from Chinas 2020 stealth aggression. Instead of mounting diplomatic,economic and military pressure on China to roll back its land grabs,India lamentably,seem willing to accept CBMs to unpin revised territorial status quo"

India need to purely link border stand off with China from national security perspective and delink it from domestic political compulsions and deal with it diplomatically and militarily from position of strength. For that to happen it need to strengthen its military at war footing to aggressively take on China. It need to recognise and pin point  Chinese weak positions all along LAC and prick China at weak spots at time and and place of its choosing. It may also work out a strategy to threaten Aksai Chin and there by disconnect Xinjiang from Tibet.  It need to show its strong fangs once for all to settle the issue and for that to happen economic and military strength and build up is a prerequisite.